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| Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois is challenging Republican Sen. Mark Kirk. |
in the hands of the same party after the election. Another three races, in Arizona, Florida and Ohio, are leaning in favor of Republican Sens. John McCain , Marco Rubio and Rob Portman , according to the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
That means Senate control is likely to come down to just 8 races — most of them virtual ties in the latest polls.
The only seat that Democrats are in danger of losing is the one currently held by Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada. The race between Republican Rep. Joe Heck and Democratic former attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto is considered a tossup.
The Republican senators in greatest danger of losing are Mark Kirk of Illinois, who faces Rep. Tammy Duckworth ; Roy Blunt of Missouri, who faces Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander ; Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, who faces Gov. Maggie Hassan ; Richard Burr of North Carolina, who faces former state representative Deborah Ross; Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, who faces former state environmental chief Katie McGinty ; and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who is in a rematch with former senator Russ Feingold .
Republicans also could lose an open seat in Indiana that was created by the retirement of GOP Sen. Dan Coats . Democratic former Sen. Evan Bayh and Republican Rep. Todd Young are in a virtual tie in the polls as they compete for the seat.
The races in Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are also considered tossups, with the difference between opposing candidates at about 2 percentage points or less, according to an average of the latest polls compiled by RealClearPolitics . In Wisconsin, Feingold is leading Johnson by an average of slightly less than 3 percentage points, which is way down from Feingold's earlier lead of nearly 10 percentage points in late September.
Illinois has become the best chance for Democrats to pick up a seat, as Duckworth leads Kirk by an average of about 13 percentage points in recent polls, according to RealClearPolitics, which ranks the race as "likely Democrat."
There are at least two states, Louisiana and Georgia, where the outcome of the Senate election may not be known for weeks.
In Louisiana, there are 24 candidates vying to fill the open seat of retiring Republican Sen. David Vitter . Unless one of them receives at least 50% of the vote Tuesday, which is unlikely, there will be a runoff between the top two vote-getters on Dec. 10. Republicans are expected to keep the seat.
In Georgia, Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson has been polling well ahead of Democratic challenger Jim Barksdale and Libertarian Allen Buckley , but the race will have to go to a runoff between the top two vote-getters if Isakson does not receive at least 50% of the vote Tuesday. A runoff would be held on Jan. 10. Isakson is ultimately expected to win, according to race ratings by Cook and by the non-partisan Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report.
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